Tag Archives: decline

CoreLogic’s 2012 Housing Market Prediction

Where’s the real estate market going in 2012?  Well, according to CoreLogic–nowhere. Is flat growth really in housing’s future? Read the following article and decide for yourself.

Two prominent home-price indices continued to show declines in September and October, with one outlook indicating no more than flat growth in the next two years.

A home-price index report from loan data aggregator Lender Processing Services showed the national average sales price for single-family homes fell 4.4 percent year over year and 1.2 percent month to month in September, to $202,000.

LPS’ Home Price Index, launched in July, tracks monthly sales in more than 13,500 ZIP codes. Within each ZIP code, the index shows historical price changes for five home-price levels, including entry-level, middle-market and high-end homes.

Prices declined on a monthly basis in all ZIP codes covered by LPS. The top 20 percent of homes (selling for more than $317,000) saw a slightly smaller monthly decline, 1.2 percent, than the lowest 20 percent (selling for less than $102,000), which saw a 1.4 percent drop.

housing market forecast“Home prices in September were consistent with the seasonal pattern that has been occurring since 2009,” said Kyle Lundstedt, LPS Applied Analytics’ managing director, in a statement.

“Each year, prices have risen in the spring, but revert in autumn to a downward trend that has not only erased the gains, but has led to an average 3.7 percent annual drop in prices to date. The partial data available for October suggests a further approximate decline of 1.1 percent.”

A report released by property data firm CoreLogic bears out the monthly decline in October. For the third straight month, nationwide single-family home prices fell on both a monthly and yearly basis, dropping 1.3 percent from September and 3.9 percent from October 2010. Excluding distressed sales (short sales and real estate owned home sales, also known as REOs), October’s index fell 0.5 percent from a year ago.

“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a statement.

The index was down 32 percent in October from an April 2006 peak. Excluding distressed sales, the drop was 22.4 percent. CoreLogic’s index is based on 30 years of data for repeat sales transactions, and “price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales.”

Among the 10 most populous metropolitan areas in the country, six saw index declines in October. Only Washington, D.C., and New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., saw index increases above 1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, six experienced index increases.

Most states, 34, experienced year-over-year index drops in October. Ten states and Washington, D.C., saw index rises of more than 1 percent. West Virginia led the way with a 4.8 percent annual rise.

At the other end of the spectrum, Nevada was the only state to see a double-digit index drop in October, down 12.1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, 28 states and Washington, D.C., saw flat or rising home prices. South Carolina posted the biggest increase, up 4.6 percent.

Read more concerning CoreLogic’s real estate prediction here: Research and Trends.

CoreLogic Records First Drop in Home Prices in Four Months

Home prices in the U.S. slipped 0.4 percent between July and August, CoreLogic reported Thursday. It marks the first time in four months the company’s index has recorded a decline.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic points out that although the calendar says August, it traditionally marks the beginning of fall for the housing market and activity begins to slow down as winter approaches.

In light of that, Fleming says the slight month-over-month decline was predictable, particularly given the renewed concerns over a double-dip recession, high negative equity, and the persistent levels of shadow inventory.

Based on CoreLogic’s assessment, national home prices were down 4.4 percent in August when compared to a year earlier. This follows a decline of 4.8 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010.

That figure includes distressed sales, such as short sales and REO transactions. Take the distress factor out, and prices are down by just 0.7 percent year-over-year.

According to Fleming, “The continued bright spot is the non-distressed segment of the market, which is only marginally lower than a year ago and continues to exhibit relative strength.”

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in CoreLogic’s national price index was -30.5 percent. That’s tracking price movement from April 2006 to August 2011.

Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -21.0 percent.

CoreLogic says the five states with the highest home price appreciation in August were: West Virginia (+8.6%), Wyoming (+3.6%), North Dakota (+3.5%), New York (+3.2%), and Alaska (+2.2%).

The five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-12.4%), Arizona (-10.7%), Illinois (-9.6%), Minnesota (-7.8%), and Georgia (-7.2%).

Carrie Bay | DSNews.com | October 6, 2011