Tag Archives: declines

Zillow Reports Home Gains in July, Predicts Market Decrease in Fall

Zillow Reports Home Gains in July, Predicts Market Decrease in Fall

Zillow: July Sees More Home Value Gains, Market to Cool in Fall

Zillow released on Tuesday its Real Estate Market Reports for July, revealing that the company’s Home Value Index hit $151,600 for the month, a 0.5 percent gain from June and a 1.2 percent increase year-over-year.

Of the metro areas covered in the reports, 62 percent saw home values climb during July, with only 49 of the 167 areas posting declines. Of the 30 largest areas covered, the Phoenix metro experienced the largest monthly increase (2.2 percent), followed by San Francisco (1.2 percent) and Denver (1.0 percent).

While rising home values may be taken as a sign of a healing market, Zillow chief economist Dr. Stan Humphries said these increases should simmer down in the coming months.

“This summer, the housing market continued to heal, as home values experienced their eighth consecutive month of increases,” Humphries said. “Tight inventory levels are leading to bidding wars and multiple offers across the country. Looking ahead, we expect to see less aggressive increases in the fall as rising values lift some would-be sellers out of negative equity, allowing them to place their homes on the market.”…

Read the rest of this article by DSNews.com online here: “Zillow: July Sees More Home Value Gains, Market to Cool in Fall”.

Thirty-Year Fixed-Rate Matches All-Time Low

Fixed mortgage rates started the year at or near their all-time record lows, according to market data published by Freddie Mac Thursday.

The GSE reports the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.91 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending January 5, 2012. That’s down from 3.95 percent the previous week and matches the record low set just two weeks earlier.

This marks the fifth consecutive week the 30-year rate has come in below the 4.00 percent mark. To put things into perspective, last year at this time, it was averaging 4.77 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.23 percent (0.8 point) in Freddie Mac’s survey this week, down from 3.24 percent the week prior.

The current average rate on a home loan with a 15-year fixed term is just two basis points above its all-time low of 3.21 percent, which was hit in two weeks during the month of December. A year ago, the average 15-year rate was at 4.13 percent.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, attributed the declines seen among fixed rates to recent data reports which indicate the housing market and manufacturing industry are showing signs of improvement.

“Pending existing home sales in November jumped 7.3 percent, nearly five times greater than the market consensus forecast, to its strongest pace since April 2010,” Nothaft noted.

“In addition,” he said, “construction spending rose 1.2 percent in November, supported by the residential sector which exhibited its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Similarly, manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in six months.”

Freddie Mac’s report shows the 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) came in at 2.86 percent (0.7 point) this week, down from 2.88 percent. This time last year, the 5-year ARM was averaging 3.75 percent.

The GSE’s survey puts the 1-year ARM at 2.80 percent (0.6 point). It was the only loan product included in the GSE’s study to head higher, up from 2.78 percent last week. Flip the calendar back 12 months, and the 1-year ARM was averaging 3.24 percent.

This article is from DSNews.com: “Thirty-Year Fixed-Rate Matches All-Time Low.”

No rise in US real estate prices before 2014?

Two prominent home-price indices continued to show declines in September and October, with one outlook indicating no more than flat growth in the next two years.

A home-price index report from loan data aggregator Lender Processing Services showed the national average sales price for single-family homes fell 4.4 percent year over year and 1.2 percent month to month in September, to $202,000.

LPS’ Home Price Index, launched in July, tracks monthly sales in more than 13,500 ZIP codes. Within each ZIP code, the index shows historical price changes for five home-price levels, including entry-level, middle-market and high-end homes.

Prices declined on a monthly basis in all ZIP codes covered by LPS. The top 20 percent of homes (selling for more than $317,000) saw a slightly smaller monthly decline, 1.2 percent, than the lowest 20 percent (selling for less than $102,000), which saw a 1.4 percent drop.

“Home prices in September were consistent with the seasonal pattern that has been occurring since 2009,” said Kyle Lundstedt, LPS Applied Analytics’ managing director, in a statement.Real estate prediction for 2012

“Each year, prices have risen in the spring, but revert in autumn to a downward trend that has not only erased the gains, but has led to an average 3.7 percent annual drop in prices to date. The partial data available for October suggests a further approximate decline of 1.1 percent.”

A report released by property data firm CoreLogic bears out the monthly decline in October. For the third straight month, nationwide single-family home prices fell on both a monthly and yearly basis, dropping 1.3 percent from September and 3.9 percent from October 2010. Excluding distressed sales (short sales and real estate owned home sales, also known as REOs), October’s index fell 0.5 percent from a year ago.

“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a statement.

The index was down 32 percent in October from an April 2006 peak. Excluding distressed sales, the drop was 22.4 percent. CoreLogic’s index is based on 30 years of data for repeat sales transactions, and “price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales.”

Among the 10 most populous metropolitan areas in the country, six saw index declines in October. Only Washington, D.C., and New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., saw index increases above 1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, six experienced index increases.

Most states, 34, experienced year-over-year index drops in October. Ten states and Washington, D.C., saw index rises of more than 1 percent. West Virginia led the way with a 4.8 percent annual rise.

At the other end of the spectrum, Nevada was the only state to see a double-digit index drop in October, down 12.1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, 28 states and Washington, D.C., saw flat or rising home prices. South Carolina posted the biggest increase, up 4.6 percent.

CoreLogic Records First Drop in Home Prices in Four Months

Home prices in the U.S. slipped 0.4 percent between July and August, CoreLogic reported Thursday. It marks the first time in four months the company’s index has recorded a decline.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic points out that although the calendar says August, it traditionally marks the beginning of fall for the housing market and activity begins to slow down as winter approaches.

In light of that, Fleming says the slight month-over-month decline was predictable, particularly given the renewed concerns over a double-dip recession, high negative equity, and the persistent levels of shadow inventory.

Based on CoreLogic’s assessment, national home prices were down 4.4 percent in August when compared to a year earlier. This follows a decline of 4.8 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010.

That figure includes distressed sales, such as short sales and REO transactions. Take the distress factor out, and prices are down by just 0.7 percent year-over-year.

According to Fleming, “The continued bright spot is the non-distressed segment of the market, which is only marginally lower than a year ago and continues to exhibit relative strength.”

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in CoreLogic’s national price index was -30.5 percent. That’s tracking price movement from April 2006 to August 2011.

Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -21.0 percent.

CoreLogic says the five states with the highest home price appreciation in August were: West Virginia (+8.6%), Wyoming (+3.6%), North Dakota (+3.5%), New York (+3.2%), and Alaska (+2.2%).

The five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-12.4%), Arizona (-10.7%), Illinois (-9.6%), Minnesota (-7.8%), and Georgia (-7.2%).

Carrie Bay | DSNews.com | October 6, 2011