Tag Archives: Lawrence Yun

Buyer demand continues into October

first-time-home-buyer

An analysis of listings data released by Realtor.com suggests that homes continued to turn over quickly in October, in defiance of seasonal patterns and in spite of price increases driven by inventory shortages in many markets.

The 1.9 million homes listed on realtor.com during October had been on the market for 94 days on average — up slightly from 93 days in September, but down 11.3 percent from a year ago, indicating demand for housing remains strong. Realtor.com rival Zillow reported a similar trend. Continue reading

Economists temper housing bubble worries

Although home prices are likely to continue to rise in the next few years, the national market is not in danger of a bubble, according to prominent economists.

“Four of the next five years are likely to be improving years in the housing market. I don’t say five because there’s always the possibility of little hiccups in the housing market,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

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Homes under contract hit 2.5-year high in November

Demand in the Northeast and West drove an increase in pending home sales in November to the highest level in 2 1/2 years.

Pending home sales grew by 1.7 percent from October to November and were up 9.8 percent from a year ago, reaching their highest level since April 2010, when buyers were rushing to claim an expiring federal homebuyer tax credit, the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® reported.

It was the third consecutive month-over-month increase in NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks homes under contract that haven’t yet closed. Pending home sales have posted annual gains for 19 consecutive months, NAR said.

“Even with market frictions related to the mortgage process, home contract activity continues to improve,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “Home sales are recovering now based solely on fundamental demand and favorable affordability conditions.”

NAR is projecting that existing-home sales will rise 8 to 9 percent in 2013 to about 5.1 million, following a 10 percent gain expected for all of 2012. NAR expects the median existing-home price to increase by about 4 percent in 2013, after posting a 7 percent gain in 2012.

In the Northeast, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2 percent from October to November, to 83.3, up 15.2 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, the index was essentially unchanged from October to November, rising 0.1 percent to 103.8. Looking back a year, the index was up 15.2 percent in the Midwest.

Pending home sales in the South were unchanged from October to November. The index reading of 117.2 represented a 13.9 percent gain from a year ago.

In the West, the index was up 4.2 percent from October to November, but at 110.1 was down 3.2 percent from a year ago, as scarce inventory limited sales.

An index value of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and a year in which sales fell within a normal range for the current U.S. population.

Local pending home sales up 12.3%

Local pending home sales up 12.3%

San Diego nearly same as April,state up for 12th straight month

pending sales“San Diego County pending home sales rose 12.3 percent in April from year-ago levels as completed sales nationally increased nearly as much.

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, interpreted the results as indicative of demand extending beyond the investor community looking for bargains in the still-depressed housing market.

“A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices,” Yun said.

The San Diego Association of Realtors said there were 5,697 pending sales as of Tuesday, up slightly from 5,654 a month ago and up 12.3 percent from 5,075 a year ago…”

Read the rest of this article by the Union Tribune, San Diego here: “Local pending home sales up 12.3%“.

Rise in Home Sales Signifies Strengthening Market

The long-awaited housing recovery is beginning to blossom, according to industry experts taking a look at recent existing-home sales.

While admitting home sales “are still very low,” Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics, says “it is clear that housing recovery is now well underway.”

The evidence: home sales have been on the rise for the past three months, posting a 5 percent increase in December.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), concurs with Dales’ assessment, saying “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery.”

Yun suggests consumers are gaining confidence from “record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices.”

In addition to the 5 percent increase in December, NAR reported a 1.7 percent annual increase in existing-home sales in 2011, a total of 4.26 million homes for the year.

Distressed homes made up 32 percent of sales in December, according to NAR’s existing home sales report for the month.
Foreclosed home sales closed at about 22 percent below market rate in December, a discount 2 percent higher than that recorded a year earlier.

Investor demand remains steady with 21 percent of homes sold in December going to investors after this category of buyers took 19 percent of purchases in November and 20 percent one year ago.

Cash sales – commonly linked to investors – made up 31 percent of December’s existing-home sales. This rate was 28 percent in November and 29 percent a year ago.

Purchases by first-time home buyers declined in December – both from the previous month and the previous year. First-time home buyers accounted for 31 percent of purchases in December, down from 35 percent in November and 33 percent in December 2010.

Housing inventory is on the decline and fell to its lowest level since March 2005 last month, according to NAR. Approximately 2.3 million homes are available for sale currently.

“The inventory supply suggests many markets will continue to see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” Yun said.

However, listed inventory is only part of the equation, and according to CoreLogic’s latest numbers, shadow inventory stands at about 1.6 million.

Regardless, Dales believes sales will rise this year. “Housing still won’t contribute much to GDP growth over the next few years, but at least it will no longer subtract from it,” Dales says.

Existing-Home Sales Rise Unexpectedly in October

Sales of previously owned homes got an unexpected boost last month while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The trade group recorded a 1.4 percent month-over-month increase in existing-home sales in October, pushing the annual rate of sales to 4.97 million. NAR’s latest reading is 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million-unit sales pace in October 2010.

Housing inventory fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes available for sale as of the end of October, which represents an 8.0-month supply.

That’s down from an 8.3-month supply in September. NAR says the housing supply has been trending gradually down since setting a record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes – foreclosed REOs and short sales – slipped to 28 percent of October’s transactions, down from 30 percent in September. They were 34 percent in October 2010.

NAR says 17 percent of last month’s existing-home sales were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales.

Market analysts were expecting up to a 3 percent drop in overall existing-home sales between September and October. Forecasts ranged between an annual rate of 4.76 million and 4.80 million.

According to NAR, October home sales should have risen higher than the 1.4 percent the trade group recorded.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, contract failures reported by Realtors jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September. Only 8 percent of contracts fell through in October of last year.

“A higher rate of contract failures has held back a sales recovery,” Yun said. “Home sales have been stuck in a narrow range despite several improving factors that generally lead to higher home sales such as job creation, rising rents, and high affordability conditions. Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process.”

NAR’s report shows the national median existing-home price was $162,500 in October, which is 4.7 percent below October 2010.

“In some areas we’re hearing about shortages of foreclosure inventory in the lower price ranges with multiple bidding on the more desirable properties,” Yun said. “Realtors in such areas are calling for a faster process of getting foreclosure inventory into the market because they have ready buyers.”

Yun adds that extending credit to responsible investors would help to absorb distressed inventory at an even faster pace, which he says “would go a long way toward restoring market balance.”

NAR’s data indicates investors purchased 18 percent of homes in October, while first-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of transactions. All-cash sales made up 29 percent of last month’s purchases.

This article is by DSNews.com.