Tag Archives: Lender Processing Services

CoreLogic’s 2012 Housing Market Prediction

Where’s the real estate market going in 2012?  Well, according to CoreLogic–nowhere. Is flat growth really in housing’s future? Read the following article and decide for yourself.

Two prominent home-price indices continued to show declines in September and October, with one outlook indicating no more than flat growth in the next two years.

A home-price index report from loan data aggregator Lender Processing Services showed the national average sales price for single-family homes fell 4.4 percent year over year and 1.2 percent month to month in September, to $202,000.

LPS’ Home Price Index, launched in July, tracks monthly sales in more than 13,500 ZIP codes. Within each ZIP code, the index shows historical price changes for five home-price levels, including entry-level, middle-market and high-end homes.

Prices declined on a monthly basis in all ZIP codes covered by LPS. The top 20 percent of homes (selling for more than $317,000) saw a slightly smaller monthly decline, 1.2 percent, than the lowest 20 percent (selling for less than $102,000), which saw a 1.4 percent drop.

housing market forecast“Home prices in September were consistent with the seasonal pattern that has been occurring since 2009,” said Kyle Lundstedt, LPS Applied Analytics’ managing director, in a statement.

“Each year, prices have risen in the spring, but revert in autumn to a downward trend that has not only erased the gains, but has led to an average 3.7 percent annual drop in prices to date. The partial data available for October suggests a further approximate decline of 1.1 percent.”

A report released by property data firm CoreLogic bears out the monthly decline in October. For the third straight month, nationwide single-family home prices fell on both a monthly and yearly basis, dropping 1.3 percent from September and 3.9 percent from October 2010. Excluding distressed sales (short sales and real estate owned home sales, also known as REOs), October’s index fell 0.5 percent from a year ago.

“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a statement.

The index was down 32 percent in October from an April 2006 peak. Excluding distressed sales, the drop was 22.4 percent. CoreLogic’s index is based on 30 years of data for repeat sales transactions, and “price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales.”

Among the 10 most populous metropolitan areas in the country, six saw index declines in October. Only Washington, D.C., and New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., saw index increases above 1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, six experienced index increases.

Most states, 34, experienced year-over-year index drops in October. Ten states and Washington, D.C., saw index rises of more than 1 percent. West Virginia led the way with a 4.8 percent annual rise.

At the other end of the spectrum, Nevada was the only state to see a double-digit index drop in October, down 12.1 percent. When distressed sales were excluded, 28 states and Washington, D.C., saw flat or rising home prices. South Carolina posted the biggest increase, up 4.6 percent.

Read more concerning CoreLogic’s real estate prediction here: Research and Trends.

Industry’s Past-Due Mortgages Continue to Drop

How many homeowners in the United States are behind on their mortgage payments? It’s 6,373,000, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS).

past due mortgagesThe number is staggering, but it’s actually on the decline, down from 6,397,000 as of the end of August, and 6,538,000 at the end of July.

LPS offered the media an advance look at the high-level numbers from its mortgage performance report due out later this month.

The company’s data, which is derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans, provides evidence that servicers are pushing those loans that have been languishing in non-payment status through the pipeline at a faster pace.

At September month-end, the national mortgage delinquency rate – which includes loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure – stood at 8.09 percent. That’s down 0.5 percent from the previous month and 12.7 percent from a year earlier.

At the same time, the foreclosure inventory rate – which LPS calculates as loans that have been referred to an attorney but have not yet reached the final stage of foreclosure sale – rose to 4.18 percent in September, up 1.7 percent from August and up 8.9 percent from September of last year.

The same trend of a declining delinquency rate and rising foreclosure rate was reported last month as well.

Of the 6,373,000 mortgage going unpaid in the United States, LPS says approximately 2,172,000 are part of the foreclosure pre-sale inventory.

The remaining 4,202,000 are 30-plus days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure. Of these, 1,844,000 are past due by 90 days or more.

According to LPS’ September study, the five states with highest percentage of non-current loans – which combines foreclosures and delinquencies – have held onto their rankings for three consecutive months. These include: Florida, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, and Illinois.

States with the lowest percentage of non-current loans include: Montana, Alaska, Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota.

This article, “Industry’s Past-Due Mortgages Continue to Drop,” is by Carrie Bay at DSNews.com.